Eight is set to become four in the Women's Statewide Cup as we reach the Quarter Final stage. And with two of the red hot favourites for the Cup in Ulverstone and Hobart Zebras set to clash, a path could well open up for an underdog to make a run to the final.
When the balls came out for the draw it was clear there was a marquee fixture, with the two most recent WSL Champions drawn to play each other. Predictably in the event of a tough draw, I heard from a few parties the well worn cliche of "Well I suppose we would have to beat them eventually." Well, I am sorry, but no actually you don't! Not if someone else eliminates them for you. For instance, Olympia now don't have to beat at least one of their major rivals.
I get why the line gets trotted out, publicly you want to back your players, build their confidence up and let them know you believe in them. But lets not kid ourselves, its pretty basic probability that says you increase your chances of being eliminated by playing stronger sides, and if you run into more of them as the competition goes along, your hopes of winning are made all the tougher.
To that end, the Zebras v Ulverstone game dramatically increases the chances of the other sides left in the draw. It's one less big side they can now draw in the Semi Finals. Take Kingborough as an example and lets say hypothetically that Zebras, Ulverstone and Olympia had all made the semi finals with them. In that scenario they are guaranteed a top 3 WSL opponent, but because Zebras/Ulverstone drew each other, if the Lions win then they will have at least a 33% chance of drawing an opponent from a lower division. That is obviously going to make it easier for them to win the tournament as a one off upset win is a lot more likely than stringing several of them together. That's not cowardice, that's just maths! So it means that for the other 6 sides in the draw their chances of taking the trophy all rose when that particular pairing came out. It may well just have opened up a path for an underdog to make a run to the final.
At least one of those sides in the final four is guaranteed to be a Championship side, as Taroona take on Northern Rangers at Kelvedon Park. Rangers have been the force of the Northern Championship in recent times, winning it the past two seasons and they have made another perfect start in 2019, going 4 from 4 to open the season. So they head into this one in good form, but the road trip swings things back in the Pirates favour a little. Taroona are the current holders of this trophy, though their decision to opt out of the WSL in 2019 due to concerns they wouldn't have been competitive indicates a defence of that crown is unlikely. A Semi Final berth is beckoning however if they can get past Rangers and they still have enough good players in their squad to do that if they fire.
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The Pirates are the current holders- Solstice Photography[/caption]
The side Taroona beat in that final last year, Kingborough, are also well poised to go deep again after drawing a lower division opponent in University. Though that doesn't mean they will coast through as The Bees maintained the majority of their squad from last season. It's a squad which has some quality in it, and realistically if it wasn't for Melissa Harrison arriving on the scene to save Clarence, a squad that wouldn't have been relegated. They are 6 wins from 6 in the Southern Championship in 2019 and their road victory over Somerset last round was an impressive result. Add in the fire that I have no doubt has been lit under the playing group for the Cup this year, and the Lions will really need to be on their guard. Their best can match it with anyone, but the Lions aren't the most consistent of sides and if they were to be slightly off their game, they may just find themselves bundled out of the Cup.
Over at Warrior Park, Olympia will be expected to advance with a minimal fuss when they take on Beachside. Given the absolute buzz-saw that the Warriors have been this season, its hard to see how a lower division side will be able to stick with them. Whilst Zebras and Ulverstone have managed to hold them to draws, they've run riot on a number of occasions, most notably beating Clarence 16-0. Whilst Beachside do have a pair of wins over Olympia this year, downing them 6-1 and 5-1, that was the Warrior's reserve side in the Southern Championship. Coming up against a side who sits clear atop the WSL is an entirely different prospect and this will probably be more of a learning experience for their players. Someone like Nina Daniels for instance, who has 9 goals already this season now gets to test herself against some of the best defenders in the state, which can only be good for her development.
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Olympia are on a roll- Solstice Photography[/caption]
Finally to the blockbuster that pits Zebras and Ulverstone against each other. They met in the Super League back on April 13 and it was the game of the Women's season to date. It ended a 5-3 Zebras win, with Zoe Nichols scoring two late goals after Ulverstone had fought back to level the game at 3-3 after 88 minutes. It was a high quality game filled with action, flowing from end to end and remained in the balance till the final whistle. Whilst the crowd loved every minute of it, the coaches bemoaned their sides defensive performances in that one and Mal Gorrie has already indicated he will be looking to tighten things up this time around. So perhaps we shouldn't be expecting another shootout in that regard, but don't rule out a penalty shootout being used to separate these sides because they are very evenly matched. The Zebras will be favoured by way of home ground advantage and they've probably played the better football out of the 2 so far. But the return of Lucy Foote last week is an enormous boost to Ulverstone, and an amazingly quick turn around having just had a baby. I don't reckon the Zebras were expecting to have to contend with the reigning Players MVP and her presence made the difference as they fought back to claim a point off the Warriors on Saturday. Could it be enough to move them through to the final four this week? Find out on Saturday in what could well prove to be a cup classic!
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The return of Lucy Foote is major game changer- Solstice Photography[/caption]
The Pirates are the current holders- Solstice Photography[/caption]
The side Taroona beat in that final last year, Kingborough, are also well poised to go deep again after drawing a lower division opponent in University. Though that doesn't mean they will coast through as The Bees maintained the majority of their squad from last season. It's a squad which has some quality in it, and realistically if it wasn't for Melissa Harrison arriving on the scene to save Clarence, a squad that wouldn't have been relegated. They are 6 wins from 6 in the Southern Championship in 2019 and their road victory over Somerset last round was an impressive result. Add in the fire that I have no doubt has been lit under the playing group for the Cup this year, and the Lions will really need to be on their guard. Their best can match it with anyone, but the Lions aren't the most consistent of sides and if they were to be slightly off their game, they may just find themselves bundled out of the Cup.
Over at Warrior Park, Olympia will be expected to advance with a minimal fuss when they take on Beachside. Given the absolute buzz-saw that the Warriors have been this season, its hard to see how a lower division side will be able to stick with them. Whilst Zebras and Ulverstone have managed to hold them to draws, they've run riot on a number of occasions, most notably beating Clarence 16-0. Whilst Beachside do have a pair of wins over Olympia this year, downing them 6-1 and 5-1, that was the Warrior's reserve side in the Southern Championship. Coming up against a side who sits clear atop the WSL is an entirely different prospect and this will probably be more of a learning experience for their players. Someone like Nina Daniels for instance, who has 9 goals already this season now gets to test herself against some of the best defenders in the state, which can only be good for her development.
[caption id="attachment_11270" align="alignnone" width="642"] Olympia are on a roll- Solstice Photography[/caption]
Finally to the blockbuster that pits Zebras and Ulverstone against each other. They met in the Super League back on April 13 and it was the game of the Women's season to date. It ended a 5-3 Zebras win, with Zoe Nichols scoring two late goals after Ulverstone had fought back to level the game at 3-3 after 88 minutes. It was a high quality game filled with action, flowing from end to end and remained in the balance till the final whistle. Whilst the crowd loved every minute of it, the coaches bemoaned their sides defensive performances in that one and Mal Gorrie has already indicated he will be looking to tighten things up this time around. So perhaps we shouldn't be expecting another shootout in that regard, but don't rule out a penalty shootout being used to separate these sides because they are very evenly matched. The Zebras will be favoured by way of home ground advantage and they've probably played the better football out of the 2 so far. But the return of Lucy Foote last week is an enormous boost to Ulverstone, and an amazingly quick turn around having just had a baby. I don't reckon the Zebras were expecting to have to contend with the reigning Players MVP and her presence made the difference as they fought back to claim a point off the Warriors on Saturday. Could it be enough to move them through to the final four this week? Find out on Saturday in what could well prove to be a cup classic!
[caption id="attachment_11272" align="alignnone" width="593"] The return of Lucy Foote is major game changer- Solstice Photography[/caption]