Welcome to another week of the Friday Forecast as we take a look ahead to Round 14 of the McDonalds NPL Tasmania season. This will mark the end of the second full round of fixtures, albeit with a Launceston City v South Hobart game to still be caught up on. With the exception of that game however it will be a case of everybody now having played each other twice and the stage will be set for the final sprint to the finish. The Strikers should have healthy lead heading into those final 7 games, and it could even be extended this week with their two nearest rivals set to square off which is where we start for this week.
Second Place on the Line as Knights Host Lions
The pick of the weekend action will feature the Glenorchy Knights hosting the Kingborough Lions at KGV in a second v third showdown. Realistically it might be second place that they are both ultimately playing for at this stage.
Last weekend’s defeat to City probably spelled the end of the Lions outside title chances. They can reach 49 points if they are perfect here on out, winning 8 of 8, which seems unlikely enough on its own, but they would also need Devonport to lose multiple times and essentially be dropping points in 50% of their 8 remaining games. The scenario is only slightly less bleak for Knights, if they were to have a perfect run in then they can reach 52 points and would need the Strikers to lose 2 other games in addition to their final head-to-head with them. As such this feels more of a key battle in sorting out who finishes second place on the table rather than who is the main challenger to Devonport, even if the door will be kept slightly ajar for Knights if they do win this.
The Knights won the last battle of the pair in what was a tight clash at Lightwood Park that could’ve gone either way. The Lions rallied back in the second half and looked set to overrun the Knights before the defending Champions steadied again late thanks to a controversial penalty. I am anticipating another close fought game here that may well be in the balance late on. I don’t think either team is going to dominate the match for long period, they likely will both get their periods in the ascendancy that create chances and it will ultimately be settled by who is more clinical.
Both sides weren’t overly convincing last weekend and will need to step up their performance here to get the win. The Knights first 45 was rather sloppy against Olympia before they steadied in the second half and professionally killed the game off. That was where the Lions fell down as they saw their hopes of a 5-match winning streak snapped by a plucky Launceston City side who they probably should have put away during the second half.
Calm Before the Storm for Strikers
With an enormous few weeks coming up for the Devonport Strikers, this week’s road trip to play the Clarence Zebras is almost like the calm before the storm for them. That doesn’t necessarily mean it will be easy, the Zebras made life tough for South last weekend but it certainly looks more straight forward than the 3 weeks following this. That 3 week stretch will see them with the chance to wrap the title up with NPL games against the Knights and Lions before taking on the Wellington Phoenix in the Australia Cup.
So can the Zebras perhaps catch the Strikers with their eye off the ball? A heavy Wentworth Park pitch can be a tough place to travel to as South Hobart saw last week in a real physical grind of a game. This Strikers side is well assembled for such assignments though and they’ve been largely untroubled both times they’ve played the Zebras this year.
The Round 7 NPL win wasn’t the Strikers at their brilliant best as they ground out a win against a Zebras outfit who dug in well at Valley Road and parked it deep, but that defensive approach didn’t work at Wentworth Park in the Lakoseljac Cup when the Strikers hit them for six in a 6-0 win.
It will take a determined backs to the walls type effort from the Zebras here which they are capable of but the Strikers continue to sweep all before them and they should have enough firepower to break through the Zebras rear guard and take another step towards recapturing the NPL title.
Improving City Host Warriors
In the twilight game we have Launceston City taking on Olympia at Buckby Motors Park. Here is hoping we get a repeat of last time the sides met because that was one of the more entertaining games of the season. A late thunderbolt of a free kick from Gedi Krusa helped Launceston City overcome the Warriors 4-2 in an absolute thriller that twice saw Olympia rallying from deficits.
City should be feeling confident heading into this one off the back of their 2-1 win over the Lions last week. It was a highly credible result and their second big underdog road win of the season. This is a group that is really coming along quite nicely under Lino Sciulli. After a really disappointing 2020 campaign they’ve built nicely and are enjoying steady improvement for the second season in a row. Breaking back into the top 4 which is something they’ve only managed once in the NPL, back in 2018, will be the next step for them and whilst it may out of reach this year if they can string together another win here they will be within reach.
The Warriors come into this one probably playing as well as they have all year. The 10-1 loss to Devonport appears to have been the nadir and their last 3 weeks have all been competitive showings. The young players are starting to show a bit more of what they can do and get comfortable at this level. That was always going to take time and has led to some pretty brutal results but they appear on the upswing. They are definite outsiders this week but as we saw last time they met City, they are capable of springing a surprise and playing well in patches. Whether they can sustain it for the full 90 minutes is their bigger question and where they must continue to improve.
South Take On Roos At Darcy Street
The Final game of the round will see South Hobart welcome Riverside to Darcy Street. Like the Lions and Knights, South are probably realistically out of the title race at this point, but the battle for second place is super tight and this represents a potential chance for them to gain some points on both the sides they are battling away with, pending the result at KGV.
It should be a regulation assignment, just as it was when they ventured to Windsor Park in Round 7. That game ended 6-0 and a similar scoreline would seem likely to be on the cards again this week. South appear to simply have too much firepower for the Roos to contain on their home track where they regularly score goals for fun.
This is the second week of a horror stretch of schedule for the Roos, having faced Devonport at Valley Road last week and still with Knights looming at KGV next weekend. You never know in this crazy game but given the way results have gone, getting a positive result feels particularly unlikely. It’s probably about limiting the damage in this period and finding something they can build off for more winnable fixtures down the line. The 5-0 defeat to Devonport last week was at least an improvement on the week before and they need to find more of those incremental gains to build on if they are to avoid a winless season.