Welcome to the Friday Forecast ahead of Week 16 of the McDonalds NPL Tasmania. We have a top of the table showdown headlining the weekend’s action as the Strikers play Knights as well as a massive game for Launceston City’s improving top four chances as they host South Hobart. Elsewhere we have the Lions eyeing a potential chance to jump into second place as they travel to Riverside and the Zebras look to lock down sixth place in the Eastern Shore Derby.
Split Priorities for Strikers Ahead of Table Topping Showdown
Weeks don’t come much bigger than this one for the Devonport Strikers! It will begin on Saturday as they look to slam the door shut on the NPL title as they take on second-placed Glenorchy Knights, before taking on Wellington Phoenix in a historic Australia Cup tie on Wednesday night. The spectre of that occasion, the first time a Tasmanian side will host, or even play, an A-League side, hovers over this match. Do the Strikers rest players here? Do they prioritise the big cup tie and risk ceding some ground in the title race? Given they have a 9 point buffer on top plus a healthy goal differential advantage, realistically this is one they can afford to lose. As such I would be surprised if we don’t see the Strikers rotating or resting some of their key movers here. Such is the depth in their squad that they will still field a formidable lineup, but it certainly helps the Knights chances significantly if they are hosting an undermanned opponent who may have one eye on Wednesday night.
The recent form from Knights against the top sides has been disappointing. They’ve lost their last 3 against the rest of the top 4 including heavy 3-goal defeats to both the Lions and South. Their strong start to the season still has them in second place, but if they don’t improve on their recent offerings then it’s unlikely that is where they end the season.
They did beat the Knights at Valley Road earlier in the season, inflicting the Strikers only defeat of the year in Round 2 with a 1-0 victory. It will be played at the Knights home ground of KGV, but Strikers Coach Tom Ballantyne has mentioned that his side have found games easier on the road than at home due to them being more open, rather than parked behind the ball as they are more inclined to do on trips to Valley Road. I’d stop short of expecting a bus parking, but certainly anticipate a defense first approach from the Knights here as they try to frustrate a Strikers side who may not have the usual chemistry in attack if they do rotate significantly.
For those looking to get tickets to Wednesday nights clash with the Wellington Phoenix you can purchase them by clicking HERE.
Top 4 Suddenly Within Reach For Surging City
Suddenly surging Launceston City will be looking to move into the top four when they host South Hobart at Buckby Motors Park. With three victories in a row City have closed the gap to the top four to just 2 points and so they could leap past South with a victory in this one.
A top four finish is a feat they have only achieved once, back in the 2018 season when they amassed 11 wins and 37 points. It’s a tally that will be tough to reach but they are currently on pace to do so, with their current total of 8 wins for the season already the second most they have ever earned in a single NPL season. Given they have only played 14 of their 21 games for the year so far, it’s either going to be their best NPL campaign ever, or second best but either way you’ve got to tip your cap to them for the season they are stringing together.
Whilst South have an utterly dominant record in the head-to-head games between these sides and won their first NPL clash of the year 4-0 at this same venue, they do appear to be a bit vulnerable at this moment in time. They have been unconvincing against the competition’s bottom two sides in the past fortnight, drawing 1-1 with Riverside and just getting out of jail with a late goal to defeat Olympia 2-1. The defeats to the Strikers and Lions that killed their title hopes have seemingly deflated the side and they will need to pick their form back up if they are to avoid sliding down the table. For the first half of the season they looked like the side by far the most likely to push the Strikers, so to drop out of the four entirely would be a shock. Yet that’s the reality they face if they don’t rediscover that touch quickly. Win this and they are firmly back in the frame for a second-place finish, but lose and the top 4 is in real jeopardy. It’s mighty tight between second and fifth in this competition.
Lions Try To Claw Back Lost Ground
Having lost ground to Knights last week despite their highly credible draw with Devonport, the Lions will be hoping the tables turn this week and they can regain that ground to potentially move into second place as they take on Riverside. A road trip to Windsor Park should be a highly winnable game for the Lions given their strong recent form. The Lions have responded well in the past fortnight after their slip up to Launceston City and a club-record points tally and finish remains well within reach after their win over Knights and draw with the Strikers.
Their opponents have also had reason to be pleased with performances in the past couple of weeks. A 3-0 loss to the Knights is obviously not a fantastic result on the surface but given they lost 5 and 6-0 to them in the previous games, it does suggest improvement has been made from earlier in the season. Throw in the draw with South Hobart a fortnight earlier and a corner has been turned at least in stopping the large amounts of goals they had been conceding. Now they have 6 chances left to try and get out there and claim that first win of the year.
Last time the sides met the Roos had one of their better performances for the season and did a fine job in stifling the Lions potent attack. It took an 88th minute penalty for the Lions to win the match 2-1, though the first clash of the two was a one-sided affair at Windsor Park in which the Lions won 4-0. They will be expecting to do it reasonably comfortably once again here, but it might be tougher work than this fixture looked a month ago with Riverside showing notable defensive improvements in the past couple of weeks.
Zebras Seek To Sweep Warriors
The Clarence Zebras will be aiming to complete a season clean sweep of the Olympia Warriors as the sides meet for the third and final time this season at Wentworth Park. In a season that has seen them win just three times, two of those victories have come in their games against the Warriors.
A win here for the Zebras would put the gap between the sides out to 8 points. Given that Olympia have only earned 6 in total for the year so far, it would all but lock in a sixth-placed finish for the Zebras and leave them on an island with a big gap to the sides below and above them. Having won the two prior meetings 3-0 and 1-0 they will be hoping to snap a three-game losing streak in what will be their fourth home match in a row.
The Warriors head into this one with more reason for optimism than they previously had in their prior matches between the two. In the games directly before playing the Zebras this year they’ve played South Hobart both times and headed into the games off the back of 5-0 and 7-0 defeats. This time around it was just 2-1 and they had by far their most competitive showing against a top four side for the season. After leaking goals for the earlier part of the year, they’ve notably tightened up in defence, conceding just 9 goals in their last 5 games after conceding 40 in their first 9. That’s 1.8 goals per game, down from 4.44 per game earlier in the year and if they can bring the level of performance they’ve shown in the narrow losses of the past few weeks, then the upset is on the cards here.