Welcome to the Friday Forecast for Round 17, as move ever closer to the finish line. There are just five weeks left in the season and whilst the title race is ultimately settled, the jostling for positions below is set to intensify this week. We start this week’s forecast however with some managerial news which was the story of the week.
Kenth To Depart the Den
The Kingborough Lion’s announced on Monday that their coach Jez Kenth will be finishing up in the top job at the end of the season. The Lions boss has decided to prioritize spending more time with his family after almost 4 seasons in charge at the Den.
Kenth’s tenure has to be considered nothing short of a triumph for the Lions, with the club enjoying comfortably their most successful period in the NPL era under his leadership.
Prior to his arrival midway through 2019 the Lion’s highest points tally in a season was just 23 and after finishing in sixth place in each of the first 4 editions of the NPL TAS, they had slumped to 8th and 7th placed finishes in 2017 and 2018. Taking the reins midway through 2019 with the side languishing once again, he sparked an immediate uptick in form as they improved from a 3-1-7 start before he took over, to post a 6-2-5 record in the back half of the season. It would be the building blocks from which they would launch, as Kenth would provide the stability the club had not had with an almost revolving door of coaches that preceded him.
The next two seasons saw continued improvement as the Lions cracked the top 4 for the first time in 2020 before repeating that feat with an improved points tally of 36 in the 2021 season. He also broke the Lions long silverware drought when he guided the side to the 2021 Summer Cup.
With five games left in his tenure he has a 33-10-21 record in the NPL, a win rate of 51.25%. To put that further into context the Lions had won exactly 33 games in the 135 NPL games prior to his arrival over a period of 6.5 years, a 24.08% win rate. So he has doubled the Clubs NPL win total in just 3 years and in some 73 less games. Slice the numbers up however you want, it’s indisputable he’s done a hell of a job.
Kenth’s departure will undoubtedly leave big shoes to fill but he leaves the club’s Mens program in a much stronger position than it was before he took the job. No doubt he will be eager to end his time with another record points tally, which is within reach and that brings us nicely to this week’s action.
Friday Night Safari Derby
The Round kicks off with a pair of Friday night games, and in one of them Kenth’s Lions will be looking to take advantage of Knights playing South to strengthen their place in the top four when they take on the Zebras.
A record points tally looks all but assured for the Lions, with the side already on 32 points with five rounds left to go and a best-ever league finish is also within grasp. They can take another stride towards that by taking 3 points from the Zebras on Friday night in the Safari Derby.
The Lions will be red hot favourites having won the previous two clashes 4-0 and 5-0 with minimal fuss. They weren’t at their best last time around against Riverside though and will want to be much sharper in front of goal here. Another profligate performance could see them dropping points as the Zebras carry a bit more of a goal threat about them.
The Zebra’s best performances this year have largely come at home but for the first time since July 2nd they will be playing on the road in this one. Their last up effort before the week off was a dominant victory over the Warriors, an opponent they have taken 9 of their 14 points for the season from. So they will be looking to build from that and use it as a confidence booster, but their record against the top sides remains ugly reading. It’s looming as another season without a top 4 scalp but they have the chance to change that in the final weeks of the season as they kick off a tough final 5-week stretch of the year in which they will play all of the competition’s top four sides.
City Look to Shrug Off Shocker in Final Launceston Derby
The second and more proper Derby of the night will take place at Windsor Park when Riverside Olympic meet Launceston City for the final time this season.
City had been absolutely flying and were building towards a serious top 4 push before being humbled by South Hobart in the past fortnight with consecutive defeats. The 10-1 loss they suffered last week really came from the blue, having not conceded more than 4 in any game up till that point and having fought out a 2-1 result against them the week prior. They were certainly undermanned last week and it probably showed the biggest thing preventing City from quite competing with the best sides as it stands, squad depth! Their best XI has been shown to be good enough to challenge the best sides, but over the course of a season it takes an entire squad and I think they were exposed a little by South in that respect last weekend. Regardless of personnel, it was still a very disappointing performance and one that killed off any top four hopes. They will be eager to bounce back here against their rivals and finish the season in the manner they’ve played 90% of it.
Whilst City have won both the Derbies so far this season, the overall ledger of 3-7 from the 10 Derbies that have been played out show that City has been a side that Riverside has been able to take points from since coming up so they will be up for it. It’s often said form and ladder position goes out the window in a derby, and whilst I think it’s a cliché that’s a little overblown, there is some truth in it here with many of Riverside’s best performances since entering the NPL coming against their neighbours. An improved defensive effort over the past month will give them some hope but they are still outsiders to take anything from this and avoid the dreaded Derby sweep from City.
Second Place on the Line As South Meet Knights
The biggest game of the week will take place at Darcy Street as South Hobart play host to Glenorchy Knights in a pivotal game in determining the final finishing places in the top four. With just 2 points separating the trio of South, Lions and Knights from 2nd to 4th the margins in the battle for second spot are razor thin and this game looms as particularly decisive.
Last weekend South seemed to break off the shackles of the month prior. They had played some great football but failed to convert chances for a number of weeks, but last weekend against City they clicked and were suddenly potting everything from everywhere. It resulted in a 10-1 dismantling of City and was a brilliant performance. If they maintain that level here they are going to be seriously hard to beat and they are now back in the box seat for a second place finish after nearly looking like they could drop out of the top four a few weeks back.
Last time the sides met South defeated the Knights 3-0 in what was previously their best performance of the year. The Knights had a few struck down with a virus that week and weren’t at their best so I think we can expect far stauncher resistance this time around and something closer to the 1-1 draw they played out the first time around. Having said that, South were comfortably the better side on balance of play in that match too, so they should feel reasonably confident they have the defending champions number in 2022.
The Knights just haven’t hit the heights of 2021 this year but they can still finish in second place with this game and the final day clash with the Lions set to largely determine their fate. They were some Keegan Smith brilliance away from snatching a point against the Strikers the last time they took the field and the last couple of months has been solid outside of an indifferent performance against Kingborough. At their best, they can win this one, but they’ve really struggled with South this year and may well need to change their approach here to get something from it.
Strikers Return to Action at Warrior Park
Finally, we have the Devonport Strikers taking on the Olympia Warriors at Empire Couriers Park. It’s fair to say this represents a slight downturn in the difficulty of fixtures for the Strikers after they last took the pitch against A-League opposition in Wellington Phoenix. I thought they acquitted themselves well against the Phoenix and had one of those early chances landed it could’ve got really interesting. Alas it didn’t and the Phoenix never looked like ceding the lead once they claimed it, but there were still plenty of positives for the Strikers in front of another fantastic Valley Road crowd.
Young Taylor Last certainly drew the plaudits for his performance and rightly so. There is a player with a tremendous future and it’s fantastic he was given this stage to show what he can do. It’s a terrific competition and let’s hope for more A-League opposition in future. On that note, it seems as if the National NPL Finals series has become a victim of the pandemic and hasn’t returned to the calendar this year. I hope that can get back on the agenda in the future as it likewise offered a great stage for some of the state’s best to showcase their abilities at a higher level.
As for this game, this should be a straightforward one for the Strikers as they continue their march to the title. The Warriors have shown considerable improvement in the back half of the season but it’s hard to see them coming away with points against an opponent who has bested them 4-0 and 10-0 in their two meetings so far this year. The 10-0 defeat in Round 10 represents the nadir of their season and so I am sure they will be determined to put in a better showing this time around, but it seems unlikely their five-game losing skid stops here as the Strikers continue their stroll to the title.