Welcome to the Friday Forecast for another week as we take a look ahead at Round 13 of the McDonalds NPL Tasmania. On the surface we it would seem like have four games with four heavy favourites this week, as the competition’s top four sides come against the bottom four. Back in Round, the last time we had these fixtures that led to four decidedly one-sided matches, with 4-1 the closest result. So can anyone flip the script this time around? Let’s see how likely that is.
Lions Looking For Five In a Row
The most likely game on paper to produce an upset would probably be the Lions taking on Launceston City at Clennett’s Lightwood Park. The Lions will still be expected to take the points but City have shown enough this year to suggest they can push the Lions this time around. Their win on the road over Knights early in the season serves as the perfect warning for what could befall the Lions if they were to take this one lightly.
Last time they met it was the Lions who proved too strong, winning 4-1 in a game featuring a frenetic start, with the score already 3-1 after just 22 minutes of play. Two goals in the opening ten minutes gave the Lions the jump and City will need to be far more switched on from the outset this weekend if they are to cause the upset.
Last week the score flattered City somewhat. Had the Knights been more clinical it would’ve been a more emphatic final score than the 1-0 it ended up. Still, consecutive one goal losses to the Competition’s top 2 sides show that they can hang with the stronger sides, which is a group that the Lions have certainly deserved to be considered among in season 2022. They’re 8-1-1 against sides not named Devonport after all.
The Lions weren’t at their best last week against the Warriors but they hardly needed to be and they’re now on a 4 match winning streak. That’s their equal longest in NPL TAS history and so a win over City would be historic for them as it would be the first time they’ve ever won 5 consecutive NPL games. That demonstrates how welk they are playing at the moment and why they are well on track for a record points tally.
Zebras Begin Homestand Against South
The other game with the most potential to be close features the Clarence Zebras hosting South Hobart. This will be the first of a month long stretch of games for the Zebras at their home base of Wentworth Park. In addition to the next four being at home, they have 7 of their final 9 games here and it represents a great chance for them to start accruing some more points off the back of last week’s thumping win over Riverside. This is not always the easiest venue to come to in mid-winter, the wind impacts games more than most grounds and it can be a notoriously heavy track making passing more difficult. If they’re going to get a breakthrough win over a top four side, which surely must be the aim for them for the back half of the year, then making this place a fortress will be the key. That starts Saturday evening against a South Hobart side coming off a defeat, but nonetheless a good performance.
For the second time this year South will have walked away from a game against the Devonport Strikers feeling pretty good about how they performed whilst bemoaning the final result. If they match the level they showed last week then this should be a relatively straight forward assignment just as it was the last time they played. South were far too strong in their Round 6 meeting and won 4-0, rarely looking troubled at the back throughout. The Zebras scored goals for fun last week up against Riverside but face a far stingier defence this week with South having only conceded the 9 goals all season and scoring will certainly be much tougher for them.
Knights Look to Sharpen Up Against Warriors
The Glenorchy Knights have gotten themselves back on track over the past fortnight and will look to remain in second place on the table as they take on the struggling Olympia Warriors.
Last week against City was one of the Knights better performances of the season, though they had just the one goal to show for it in an eventual 1-0 win. This week should provide an opportunity to sharpen up in front of goals as their opponents have leaked scoring chances this season and are averaging just shy of 4 goals against per game. I’d have to think Knights would be underperforming any expected goals modelling this year as their conversion certainly hasn’t been setting the world on fire. It’s the biggest thing they need to improve with home games against the Lions and Strikers looming in the next month set to determine their fate this season. This therefore should be a good chance for them to rediscover their goal scoring touch.
It hasn’t exactly been a banner year for the Warriors, so the past fortnight has probably been their best of the season. A comfortable 4-0 win over Riverside was followed by an improved effort against the Lions in a 3-1 loss. It’s certainly been a step up in the past 2 games after the 10-1 loss they copped at Valley Road the week before that. I don’t think taking points from the top four looks particularly likely for the Warriors down the stretch, but an improvement and more competitive showing than in the 5-0 loss they suffered against Knights last time around should be the expectation and will be the yard stick to measure them by here.
Strikers Should Cruise at Home
In the final game of the Round the Devonport Strikers should be able to deal with a languishing Riverside Olympic with relative ease when they meet at Valley Road.
Things went from bad to worse last weekend for Riverside, turning in their worst performance of the year and suffering their heaviest defeat by falling 11-2 to Clarence Zebras. Devonport recently torched the Warriors 10-1 at home and given Olympia defeated Riverside 4-0 the week prior to that, it’s hard to see how this is anything other than a big win for the Strikers. Anything short of a drubbing is probably going to be a good result for Riverside who face the competition’s top four sides in their next four games. That’s certainly not the run of games you want coming off a defeat like last week and it will require some major improvements in defence or more of the same will be heading their way.
This game probably offers the Strikers a good chance to rotate and rest a few who might be carrying some knocks. Their fixture will get busy later in the month, from July 23-August 3 they will face the Kingborough Lions, Glenorchy Knights and then Wellington Phoenix in the FFA Cup. So freshening up the squad in advance of those games would seem a logical move given they don’t really need a goal difference boost. If any side has the depth to be able to rotate heavily it’s the Strikers, whose enviable depth sees them with several non-regulars who would probably get starts at any other club.
McDonalds NPL Tasmania, Round 13
Saturday 9 July
Devonport Strikers v Riverside Olympic, 2:15pm, Valley Road
Kingborough v Launceston City, 2:30pm, Clennetts Lightwood Park moved to 4:30pm, Empire Couriers Park
Olympia v Glenorchy Knights, 2:30pm, KGV
Clarence Zebras v South Hobart, 4:30pm, Wentworth Park