Welcome to the Friday Forecast for Round 17 as we reach the final stretch of the season following last weekend’s catch-up round. There have been a few fixtures played out since I last wrote, with several previously postponed games being played out and I believe we are now all caught up to where we should be.
The overall picture remains the same in terms of the title race, with Launceston United wobbling, but still firmly in the box seat. They face Devonport next week and may be happy to be sitting this weekend out to regroup after a pair of uncharacteristic performances from their past 2 games. Whilst they took the points from their game against Olympia on Tuesday, I suspect given they were eyeing more than a two goal win from the fixture. Getting the points was ultimately all that mattered though and if they can do that three more times this year from their final four games, then the title is guaranteed.
The final 3 weeks sees them taking on the bottom 3 sides who are yet to take a point from a top 4 side this season, so even if they were to drop next week’s game against Devonport they really should close this out and claim the title. They’ve done the hard yards and surely can’t let it slip at this point. That’s for future weeks to sort out though as this week they sit on the sidelines with the bye and watch the sides chasing them all take the pitch in games they will all be expected to win in.
Friday Night Safari Derby
The round begins with a rare Friday night fixture with the Safari Derby between the Kingborough Lions and Clarence Zebras at Clennett’s Lightwood Park.
The Lions have found themselves on an island in fifth place this season. They’ve comfortably accounted for Taroona and Olympia both times they’ve played them to accumulate their four wins, but their record against the top four is 0-0-9 and many of those games have not been particularly close. They are closer to the top four than they are the bottom pair, but it’s hard to grade the year as anything other than a disappointment if they fail to take a single point from the sides above them. With Laura Davis back in the side and looking every bit the MVP-caliber player that she is, they’ve looked much more threatening in attack recently, but they continue to leak goals at the back. Unless they significantly improve in this area that top record is going to remain as is and they won’t be taking the points here. If they can tighten up though, there’s no doubt they have the weapons to win games and do some damage to the Zebras defence which has looked vulnerable of late.
The biggest question mark on the Zebras might be motivation. They slipped out of the title race and now appear up against it to try and finish any better than in fourth position. There is a chance the Lions might catch them on a cold winter night here with not much to play for, which is something they’ve not really had to deal with in previous years where they have been in the thick of title races.
Last time the sides met the Lions put in one of their better efforts, going down 3-2 which was an improvement on the 6-2 result back in Round 3. Let’s hope we get a similarly entertaining clash this time around because that was an exciting game in the balance till late on and showed what the Lions are capable of on their day. They just need to show it in larger patches and avoid the defensive lapses that have so plagued them this year.
Warriors Facing Tough Task to Build Momentum from Midweek
On the Saturday the Olympia Warriors will take on a surging Devonport side who remain unbeaten in their past 8 games. Having breezed past the Warriors 8-0 and 12-0 in their two prior clashes, one of which was just 7 days earlier, this should be a fairly regulation assignment for Devonport. Jazmin White once again lit up the Warriors defence last weekend helping herself to another five goals that took her season tally to a new WSL scoring record of 40. With four more games to come, there is a fair chance she might be raising the bat on a half-century before the season is out.
Whilst they struggled last weekend against Devonport, I must give immense amounts of credit to Olympia for their performance against Launceston United on Tuesday under trying circumstances. They acquitted themselves superbly and produced what was comfortably their best performance of the season. For long periods they frustrated United and played a smart counter-attacking game plan. They had their moments on the break and had they had just a little more composure in front of goals then they could well have produced one of the great boilovers by taking a point. Given the circumstances in which the game was played, it was a really impressive showing and you’ve got to give them their due for soldiering on in what has been a very tough year.
Getting that elusive first win for the year looks a bridge too far for them this weekend against this Strikers side, but if they can bring that level and in particular that type of defensive tenacity in their upcoming games against Taroona and Kingborough, then they could well find themselves with a breakthrough victory. This one looks to be tough though and to avoid another Strikers rout they are going to need to find a way to slow down White, who they’ve simply had no answer for this year.
Now Relying on Others: South Just Have to Keep on Winning
Finally we move the Sunday where have South Hobart taking on Taroona at Darcy Street. South enter this one off the back of undoubtedly their best performance of the year. In fact, it was probably the best performance any side has put on in any game this year. To dismantle the previously unbeaten United 6-0 was not a result I saw coming. It shows the ceiling this side has and if United were to slip, then they are waiting to pounce. Had Madi Chambers been available all season I suspect South could well have won the title this year, her combination with Davies against United was devastating as they showed off the chemistry they built together in their time playing for the Olympia Warriors. She has taken a couple of weeks to get going, but that game against United was a timely reminder of her immense talent. Ultimately, she wasn’t though and so they find themselves needing to win out and then probably rely on the Lions to do them a huge favour against United. I can see the first part playing out given the level they produced last start against and that’s all they can really control at this point, even if the second part of the equation remains unlikely.
Having downed Taroona 5-0 and 8-0 this week shouldn’t present too many worries for South as they gear up for a big final few weeks of the season. Taroona have taken care of Olympia both times they’ve met but the nearest they’ve got to any of the five sides above them is a 5-1 loss to United. Improving on that record is probably the aim here because getting points looks distinctly unlikely from what we have seen from them this season. They will just be looking for a more competitive showing than they’ve produced previously, but they cop a South side playing as good as they have all year which is only going to make it tougher for the Pirates.